UPDATE: October 2017
Market Cycle: UP, late in the cycle, keep an eye open for the exit, seems pretty extended
Market Trend: September rally into early October, don’t fight the trend, stay invested..
Recession Watch: Recession probable in the next 12-24months (Perhaps starting Spring 2018 to fall 2019)
My Recession Forecast: -50% to -75% drop in stock market (I still believe it might actually be a 1930’s type Depression)
Young professionals: 75% Stocks, 20% bonds, 5% Cash
Seasoned elders: 50% Stocks, 30% bonds, 20% Cash
What I am Reading:
Yield Curve Should go from lower left to upper right. If inverted (top right to bottom left) or flat, then Recession is near.
PMI Bad if trending down, especially bad if below 50.
Jobless Claims They were at 366,000 at the May 2008 peak. Most investors have a level of 300 to 350 pencilled in as a red flag threshold for the next recession.